Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
